Here is an itemized list of the model results.  Obviously picking all these upsets in the first round is not a smart strategy.  Utah State has failed in this model for 3 years.  Clemson you have to question playing late Tuesday and then early on Thursday.

We wanted to get these out there so we can discuss them after the games.

Our First Round Statistical Upsets:

(12) Utah State over Kansas State

(12) Clemson over West Virginia

(11) Gonzaga over St. John’s

(11) Marquette over Xavier

(10) Michigan State over UCLA

(10) Florida State over Texas A&M

(9) Illinois over UNLV

(9) ODU over Butler

Our Conditional First Round Upsets:

(12) Richmond over Vanderbilt

(11) Gonzaga over St. John’s

(11) Missouri over Cincinnati

(10) Michigan State over UCLA

(9) Tennessee over Michigan

Note:  Conditions nullify the Illinois-UNLV upset

Our Second Round Statistical Upsets

NONE

 

Our Second Round Conditional Upsets

       (5) K State over Wisconsin

       Need 2 double digit seeds from Gonzaga, Marquette, Missouri, Clemson, and Michigan State

 

Our Third Round Statistical Upsets

(3) Syracuse over (2) North Carolina

(3) BYU over (2) Florida

Our Third Round Conditional Upsets

(3) UConn over San Diego State

(4) Wisconsin over (1) Pitt – realize this doesn’t correspond with 2^nd round conditional

 

Our Fourth Round Statistical Upsets

NONE

 

Our Fourth Round Conditional Upsets

(1)    Select at least 3 teams that have been to a Final 4 since 1985

(2)    Pick no team that gets more than 30.5% of their points from 3 (Louisville, ND, Wisconsin)

(3)    Pick Duke or two teams from one conference

(4)    Make sure the seeds add up to between 7 and 13

 

The model likes Ohio State over Kansas, but the Irving coming back to Duke, all of this could change.  Also, be aware of Purdue having some issues on their team.

Good luck!

 

 

 

From Most Likely to Least Likely:

Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova:  Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (38) - two from one conference and one team from last year's Final 4

Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Duke:  Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (31) - two from one conference

Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Baylor: Combined Seed (9), Combined RPI (36)

Kansas, Syracuse, WVU, Duke:  Combined Seed (5), Combined RPI (13)

Here are the toughest games to model:

Midwest:  Surprisingly, none.
West:  Butler(5) vs. UTEP (12), Xavier (6) vs. Minnesota(11), BYU(7) vs. Florida (10)
East:  Missouri (10) vs. Clemson(7), Marquette (6) vs. Washington (11)
South:  Utah State (12) vs. Texas A&M (5), Purdue(4) vs. Siena(13), St. Mary's (10) vs. Richmond (7), Baylor vs. Villanova.

Couple of other things:

(1) The initial run shows only 3 first round upsets (Old Dominion, Utah State, and Siena;  Siena is based on adjusted stats for Purdue, which is iffy).  That is low, but we still have 3 more things to do before finalizing the bracket.  Recall we don't count 7-10 or 8-9 games as upsets.  For those match-ups.  We like N. Iowa, Florida State as the 9 seed picks and Ga Tech as a 10 pick with lots to reconcile for the 7-10 games.
(2) If you are looking for a 12 or 13 to make the Sweet 16, focus your efforts on the West and South.  The West in that pod only has one major team (Vandy).  The South has a very under-rated Utah State vs. a very over-rated Texas A&M and an injured Purdue vs. perennial Siena who beat Ohio State last year.
(3) How tired will St. Mary's be against Richmond?  San Diego St. vs. Tennessee?  Both play in Providence on Thursday.  Likely, one of those teams will be playing at 9am local after a LONG plane ride.
(4) No conference tournament was played in a dome this year.
(5) Baylor could be playing in Houston.
(6) Villanova is the only team with a chance of repeating to the Final 4 according to our models.
(7) West Virginia did not play at Syracuse this year.

Model should be finished tonight.