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At least one 8 or 9 seed has a 40% probability of making the Sweet 16, based on the past 25 years, however, it hasn't happened since 2004 when 2 made it. Remember that the pod system was put in place in 2003.
Based on current RPI and AP Rankings and Kenpom Rankings mis-matches, keep an eye on Maryland. If they are an 8 or 9 seed, they may be worth taking a bet on.
Our Blog 
Items filtered by date: December 2009
Items filtered by date: December 2009
Items filtered by date: December 2009
Wednesday, 27 January 2010 23:17
Is this the year an 8 or 9 seed makes the Sweet 16?
Published in
Blog
Tuesday, 26 January 2010 23:15
Final 4 Projections
My Final 4 comes from some very specific rules based on evaluating 25 years of NCAA Tournament History.
Published in
Blog
Tuesday, 26 January 2010 22:45
First Round Action: Can All the Higher Seeds win?
Many people look at the performance of seeds individually in the NCAA Tournament. However, before you look at that, it's equally important to understand how likely it is for ALL the respective seeds to win.
Look at this:
2 Seeds win 96% of their games. However, since 1985, the probability that they all win is 84%. It's happened every year since 2001, right before they went to the pod system.
3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time.
8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
We have looked at other probabilities like this and will share them in future postings.
Look at this:
2 Seeds win 96% of their games. However, since 1985, the probability that they all win is 84%. It's happened every year since 2001, right before they went to the pod system.
3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time.
8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
We have looked at other probabilities like this and will share them in future postings.
Published in
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