Displaying items by tag: Final 4 - Bracket Analytics LLC

Monday, 21 February 2011 15:47

Final 4 Short List as of February 20th

Final 4 Short List as of February 20^th

Tags: North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Final 4, NCAA Tournament, Bracketology, Bracket Analysis

Here is a look at our current Final 4 short list. I have expanded the list slightly and will explain more below.

Team	Rankings	Productivity	Historical Precedent	Recent Performance	Point Distribution
Ohio State	1	1	x	x	x
Texas	1	1	x	x	x
Kansas	1	1	x	x	x
Georgetown	1	1	x	x	x
Syracuse	1	1	x	x	x
Kentucky	1	1	x	x	x
Pitt	1	1		x	x
Duke	1	1	x	x
BYU	1	1		x	x
Purdue	1	1		x	x
Wisconsin	1	1	x	x
North Carolina	1	1	x		x
San Diego State	1	1		x	x
Villanova	2	2	x	x	x
George Mason	2	2	x		x
West Virginia	2	2	x	x	x
Louisville	2	2	x	x
Notre Dame	2	2		x	x

Villanova has fallen dramatically, but when you lose to Rutgers and play DePaul, that stuff will happen. Their last four games should allow them to get back near the top of the list.

Six teams have all the attributes for a likely Final 4 appearance. Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, Georgetown, Syracuse, and Kentucky all show they have what it takes. We are slightly worried about Kentucky as they really rely heavily on the three and they get so many points from there playing at home, it really makes you wonder. The other teams have had some hiccups, but that will happen during the season.

Duke’s point distribution is improving and they could be on the Green List by next week. Wisconsin is the only other team that can move from yellow to green at this point.

The orange list was created because I am getting several inquiries about “What about ______?”. If you are not on the orange list, you have absolutely no shot. The orange list provides a margin of error that casts the widest net of outcomes. If a team makes the Final 4 and isn’t on this list it will be unprecedented based on our filters.

Just to give you an idea of what this list looked like last year, I have reproduced our list going into Selection Sunday.

2212011blog

Two points of interest: (1) Only one team on this list lost in the first round, and (2) only 5 of these teams lost to a team not listed here.

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Thursday, 17 February 2011 19:40

Final Four Shortlist

Here is the Final Four Shortlist:

Team	Rankings	Productivity	Historical Precedent	Recent Performance	Point Distribution
Ohio State	x	x	x	x	x
Texas	x	x	x	x	x
Kansas	x	x	x	x	x
Georgetown	x	x	x	x	x
Syracuse	x	x	x	x	x
Villanova	x	x	x	x	x
Kentucky	x	x	x	x	x
Pitt	x	x		x	x
BYU	x	x		x	x
Notre Dame	x	x		x	x
Purdue	x	x		x	x
Wisconsin	x	x	x	x
Duke	x	x	x	x
North Carolina	x	x	x		x
San Diego State	x	x		x	x

Team	Rankings	Productivity	Historical Precdent	Recent Performance	Point Distribution
Ohio State	x	x	x	x	x
Texas	x	x	x	x	x
Kansas	x	x	x	x	x
Georgetown	x	x	x	x	x
Syracuse	x	x	x	x	x
Villanova	x	x	x	x	x
Kentucky	x	x	x	x	x
Pitt	x	x		x	x
BYU	x	x		x	x
Notre Dame	x	x		x	x
Purdue	x	x		x	x
Wisconsin	x	x	x	x
Duke	x	x	x	x
North Carolina	x	x	x		x
San Diego State	x	x		x	x

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Thursday, 13 January 2011 16:32

Our First Look at our Final 4 Short List

Based on our algorithms that we have built based on 26 years of tournament history, here is the current short list:

Big 10: Michigan State, Ohio State

Big East: Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown, West Virginia

ACC: Duke

SEC: Florida, Kentucky

Big 12: Kansas

Now, 69% of the time, there are two teams from one conference and 73% of the time there is a team from last year's Final 4.

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Monday, 15 March 2010 15:27

Models see only 4 Final Four Combinations Possible

From Most Likely to Least Likely:

Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (38) - two from one conference and one team from last year's Final 4

Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Duke: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (31) - two from one conference

Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Baylor: Combined Seed (9), Combined RPI (36)

Kansas, Syracuse, WVU, Duke: Combined Seed (5), Combined RPI (13)

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Monday, 01 March 2010 23:34

Updated Final 4 Projections

Syracuse over Kansas is the current pick for the Championship game.

The Final 4 candidates:
Syracuse
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Villanova
Georgetown
Wisconsin

with Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, and Texas just on the outside.

Duke has caught our attention with their offensive rebounding and we want to figure out why this is occurring.

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Saturday, 20 February 2010 23:31

Final 4 Probabilities

One thing that I've been reading about is how that since 1991, only one team has won the tournament without making it to the previous year's tournament (Syracuse, 2003).

That got me thinking more about my Final 4 probabilities. Here is my collection:

Probability that:

Two teams are from one conference: 72%
One team from last year's Final 4: 72%
Probability that all the teams have an RPI <=22: 81%
Probability that all the teams are in the RPI Top 10: 19%
Probability that you will have 2 or more 1 seeds: 60%
Probability that you will have 3 or more 1 seeds: 16%

Here is what I just researched:

Probability that a team went to last year's tournament: 90%
Probability that one team in the Final 4 did not make last year's tournament: 36%

That last number is much higher than I would have anticipated. However, knowing that numbers gives some hope to Georgetown and Kentucky, but this information would probably make you lean towards a:

Syracuse, Kansas are probably in.

Villanova and Michigan State are leading candidates for the 3rd slot.

Duke and Wisconsin lead for the 4th slot. However, Duke is somewhat hurt by their high RPI. The top 3 teams in the RPI have only made it once in the past 16 years, while 2 of the top 3 have made it 50% of the time.

Kentucky and Georgetown are still in consideration.

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Thursday, 11 February 2010 23:28

Final 4 Models show significant shift

Kansas
Duke
Villanova
Syracuse
Kentucky
Georgetown
Wisconsin

with Michigan State, Ohio State, Ga Tech, and Texas just outside our criteria.

Let's look at the 7 teams.

Kansas is clearly the strongest team at this point. They seem to be a solid pick for the championship game. Duke's loss to Georgetown still looms big. Speaking of G-town, you have to like Monroe and Freeman, but you have to be skeptical with losses to South Florida and Rutgers. I question whether or not they can win 2 in a row.

Villanova has a huge advantage in our models having gone to last year's final 4 and having a superstar like Scottie Reynolds. At the same time, does Villanova beat American last year if that game isn't in Philadelphia?

Syracuse is probably the second strongest team behind Kansas.

Wisconsin is still playing well and I think they are a great dark horse pick for your bracket.

Kentucky - well they have Wall, Calipari, and rich boosters. I will let you make your own conclusions.

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Monday, 08 February 2010 23:26

Updated Models - No Repeat Final 4 Participant?

The models have been updated this morning. Here is our Final 4 short list:

1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Syracuse
5. Georgetown
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Texas
9. Villanova

Now, the bottom 3 are on the brink of following off the list. Texas is currently 22nd in the RPI, our lower level threshold. Michigan State and Villanova, are nearly ready to fall off the short list, based on their on-the court productivity.

If that happens, we are down to 6. Duke doesn't pass the eye ball test with their lack of points in the pain. They are reaching our upper limit on % of points from 3.

If you believe that 2 teams will come from one conference and that conference is the Big East, you are looking at Georgetown and Syracuse. Kansas has our next strongest rating. That leaves the last slot a battle between Wisconsin and Kentucky

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Monday, 01 February 2010 23:20

Updated Final 4 Projections

Here is my latest Final 4 Projections based on the rules I've generated from 25 years of NCAA Tournament history along with their latest RPI Ranking and (Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology Seed):

Villanova, 4 (1)
Michigan State, 10 (2)
Texas, 19 (2)
Kansas, 1 (1)
Duke, 5 (3)
Georgetown, 3 (2)
Syracuse, 2 (1)
Wisconsin, 13 (4)
Kentucky, 7 (1)

Villanova and/or Michigan State are highly likely to make the Final 4 as one team from last year's Final 4 typically makes it.

We are also expecting 2 teams from one conference.

We also expect the combined RPI to be between 26 and 44. This rules looks like it may be challenged on the lower limit based on current performance.

Lastly, we expect the cumulative seed total to fall between 6 and 11.

We have shifted our two teams from one conference from the Big 12 to the Big East. We believe that the Big East will have an easier path to accomplish this as Villanova will probably be in the East and Syracuse in the West. Kansas and Texas are likely to have to go through Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Wisconsin in some capacity. Also, these teams will be playing in a dome so teams that rely too heavily on 3 pointers may be in for a rude awakening, unless they have played games in a dome earlier in the season.

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Tuesday, 26 January 2010 23:15