Here is an itemized list of the model results.  Obviously picking all these upsets in the first round is not a smart strategy.  Utah State has failed in this model for 3 years.  Clemson you have to question playing late Tuesday and then early on Thursday.

We wanted to get these out there so we can discuss them after the games.

Our First Round Statistical Upsets:

(12) Utah State over Kansas State

(12) Clemson over West Virginia

(11) Gonzaga over St. John’s

(11) Marquette over Xavier

(10) Michigan State over UCLA

(10) Florida State over Texas A&M

(9) Illinois over UNLV

(9) ODU over Butler

Our Conditional First Round Upsets:

(12) Richmond over Vanderbilt

(11) Gonzaga over St. John’s

(11) Missouri over Cincinnati

(10) Michigan State over UCLA

(9) Tennessee over Michigan

Note:  Conditions nullify the Illinois-UNLV upset

Our Second Round Statistical Upsets

NONE

Our Second Round Conditional Upsets

       Need 2 double digit seeds from Gonzaga, Marquette, Missouri, Clemson, and Michigan State

Our Third Round Statistical Upsets

(3) Syracuse over (2) North Carolina

(3) BYU over (2) Florida

Our Third Round Conditional Upsets

(3) UConn over San Diego State

(4) Wisconsin over (1) Pitt – realize this doesn’t correspond with 2^nd round conditional

Our Fourth Round Statistical Upsets

NONE

Our Fourth Round Conditional Upsets

(1)    Select at least 3 teams that have been to a Final 4 since 1985

(2)    Pick no team that gets more than 30.5% of their points from 3 (Louisville, ND, Wisconsin)

(3)    Pick Duke or two teams from one conference

(4)    Make sure the seeds add up to between 7 and 13

The model likes Ohio State over Kansas, but the Irving coming back to Duke, all of this could change.  Also, be aware of Purdue having some issues on their team.

Good luck!